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Report
No.240402 |
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- Domestic - |
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2006 Rice Season Ending with Crop Index at 96 The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) publicized on October 26 that, in terms of cropping index (the normal crop level counted as 100), 2006 season rice rated '96'as of October 15, categorized as doing 'below normal'. It is since two years that rice cropping status fell to 'below normal' category when it ended up at '98' for 2004 crop. This makes it certain that the 2006 crop was a poor harvest season. As regards the overall demand and supply of 2006 crop rice, MAFF predicts an almost equilibrium situation due, in part, to excess supplies resulting from non-compliance to production adjustment. As for the 2006 season paddy, the number of ears remained below normal level due to insufficient sun shine till the end of July. Areas of lower harvest expanded as typhoons numbers 10 and 13 hit Kyushu islands during August to September. Northern region of Kyushu experienced serious yield losses ranging between 30 to 50 percent. Saga prefecture saw an exceptionally poor harvest with crop index plunging down to '49', the lowest since start of the crop survey back in 1948, and Nagasaki prefecture also saw its worst ever crop with the index number at '68'. October indices of these prefectures plunged more than 20 percentage points from indices of September 15. The latest index being lower than the previous figure developed in as many as 18 prefectures, and 33 prefectures registered 'below normal' cropping, which means index below '98'. It is only in two prefectures of Hokkaido and Toyama which can expect a good crop. Some of the main producing prefectures are estimated doing as follows: Niigata and Akita, both prefectures with popular brands, at '100'; Fukushima at '98' and Ibaraki at '97'. Nation-wide, rice crops in the past 3 years has seen two years in row of poor harvest - with index at 90 for 2003 crop and at 98 for 2004 - and a normal crop for 2005 with index at 101. Based on the 2006 rice cropping situation, MAFF publicized its estimates of demand and supply of rice on the same day. Supply of 2006 crop rice for staple food is estimated to be 8, 400,000 tons (on husked basis), and this is short of estimated yearly demand of 8,440,000 tons just a little bit. However, MAFF predicts that "the demand and supply will balance out (Stable Food Department Rice Policy Planning Division)." No major shortage should develop because there was some production harvested on acreage above the level of production adjustment. MAFF had set in autumn of 2005 the 2006 target quantity of production at 8,330,000 tons or "the quantity which it is good to be produced in the country" and still realize balanced demand and supply. That quantity translates in area terms into some 1,575,000 hectares. The area sown to rice for 2006 crop publicized by MAFF on the same day was a little larger than that at 1,684,000 hectares (not including area sown for green fodder). The national production estimate of 8,547,000 tons is arrived at by summing up production estimates of prefectures, which is calculated based on the area sown. Subtracting 150,000 tons earmarked for use in processing Miso [soybean paste], the figure of 8, 400,000 tons is reached which is the quantity available for staple food, and that happens to be 40,000 tons below demand. MAFF says "impact of this amount of short fall on market prices will be negligibly small, in part, thanks to the government inventory (Rice Policy Planning Division)." |
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